Probability and Vote Rigging

A fellow in one of my astro clubs is a vehement Trump supporter — mostly because of 2nd amendment issues, he told me. But he also greatly dislikes Hillary Clinton, believing that she rigs everything. I believe he said that the fact that Hillary beat Bernie in 5 out of 6 coin tosses used to settle dead heats in some small mostly-white northern caucus state (I forget which), proved that she cheated.
I’d like to go into that here.
He also wrote: “Read the leaked DNC emails. Look at the videos of voter fraud. Tell me they are not true. The emails alone are dam[n]ing…”
My reply was:
“Lessee, the leaked DNC emails are, what, a million or so pages? It’d take me HOURS to read all that (sike – decades!) Mind giving me a clue as to what to look at first? Help me out here?
 “And which voter fraud videos? The ones where this one person, or another person (gosh, possibly as many as a full DOZEN?) voted twice? Or the ones where racist politicians wipe tens of thousands of their political enemies off the voter list, and enact policies that they know good and well will further reduce the voter turnout of their enemies’ supporters by tens of thousands more? Which one do you think is more serious []?” — I continued…
I haven’t seen his response yet.
And by the say, to get 5 heads out of six flips is not all that unlikely – I think it will happen about 10% of the time if you reproduce the experiment a few million times on a computer. Here’s how I calculate that: we only really need to figure out what are the odds of getting exactly one tails in the experiment, which is much easier to calculate. For each of the six coin tosses, I am going to assume that the probability of getting heads = p(tails) = 1/2 or 50% or 0.5. [Obvviously if the game is rigged, then the probabiolity is gonna be different, and wer’ll look into that in a bit.
So the probability of getting tails on the first toss and all the others heads is 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/1 * 1/2 because the coin tosses in our ideal experiment are completely independent – nobody’s cheating, no magnets or tiny weights or two-headed coins. Or (1/2)^ 6 , or 1/64. Now if you think about it a bit, the probability of getting tails on throw #2 and heads everywhere else is exactly the same: 0.5 ^ 6, or 1/64. And in fact, there are six places that your solitary heads can come up – first, second, 3rd, 4th, 5th, or 6th, and the probabilities are all the same, so we can just add them or all together, or else multiply 1/64 by 6, and we get 6/64, of 3/32, 9.375% of the time. So I was off a bit, it’s closer to 9% than 10% . Not a big deal.
In fact, if you use something called the binomial theorem, or better yet, Pascal’s triangle which you can write on a piece of scratch paper in a minute or less, you can calculate what is P(0 tails), P(1 tail), and P(2 tails) all the way up to P(6 tails.)
P0 = 1/64 = P6 = 1.5625%
P1 = 6/64 = P(5) = 9.375%
P2 = 15/64  = P(4) = 23.4375%
P(3) = 20/64 = 31.25%
I hope you underrstand my shortcuts. if not, please tell me and I’ll explain more clearly.
In any case, the chance of getting exactly 1 head or exactly 1 tail adds up to about 19% of the time — not impossible.
If, howebver, the coin (or whatever it was they were using) was rigged, then things are different, and I’ll look into that later. Gotta run now.

Super Scenario for Tonight’s Debate

Wonderful screenplay for an alternate-reality presidential debate, from Aaron Wiseman, who’s been a friend of my own kids for decades – they’be been to each others’ weddings, etc. I had no idea he could write like this. It’s fantastic, don’t you agree?
“Best case scenario for tonight’s debates?
10-minutes in, we’re seeing the same bullshit.
Suddenly, all the house lights go down. The arena is awash in total darkness. Panic begins to set in when the lights flicker and momentarily reveal a cloaked figure in the rafters.
The lights flash again and the figure is gone. Suddenly, a crushing guitar riff fills the entire venue. A spotlight shines down on the arena floor. The figure from the rafters has magically moved with supernatural speed.
As the music builds, the cloak falls to the floor. IT’S JOE BIDEN! He’s wearing a crisp blue two button suit complete with arm tassels and full Warrior face paint.
As the music hits full crescendo, Joe takes off towards the stage at a full sprint! In one graceful move he slides onto the stage and hits Trump with a forearm to the dome.
The Great Pumpkin, takes the blow like it’s nothing. That doesn’t slow ole Joe and he hits the Cheeto Demon with a super kick to the face. B-Side Beelzebub just smiles.
Is he even human? How can he take so much punishment? Joe looks to the audience pleadingly.
As if to say, “I hit him with my best shot. How?” But then the carroty façade begins to falter and Trump’s knees buckle. His eyes roll into the back of his head and he begins to stagger around the stage.
Joe goes in for the finisher and hoists Trump into the air by his belt. As Trump begins to flail, Joe sends the would-be-dictator-tot crashing to the floor. A perfectly executed Gorilla Press.
Hillary walks up to Joe, her arms open in gratitude. But instead of matching her embracing, Joe grabs the mic from the former Secretary of State.
This wasn’t for you. Hill. A. Ry. Clin. Ton” Joe growls, “It was for America!”

Good News: NAACP Calls for Moratorium on New Charter Schools and Better Oversight 

Details here:

Published in: on October 15, 2016 at 1:57 pm  Comments (1)  

Major Historical Step: 96% of UNO Charter School Teachers in Chicago Vote to Authorize Strike

531 out of 532 teachers took part in the vote, and 96% voted in favor. As far as I know this is the first time that staff at a chain of charter school teachers have so voted. It lays to rest yet another myth about charter schools–that they have “solved” the teaching labor problem. Read a local news and report here.

Published in: on October 8, 2016 at 9:21 am  Comments (1)  

The Very Important Four-Letter Word That Most Charter Schools Leave Out of Their Sales Pitch

Peter Greene explains it clearly, as usual. The word is “SOME”.


Published in: on September 24, 2016 at 8:40 pm  Comments (3)  

Why you shouldn’t join TFA — a serious video by a young woman who did 

Among other things, she says that the TFA organization is actually designed to INCREASE achievement gaps, not close them.

Here’s the link to the video (and thanks to Mercedes Schneider):

Published in: on September 23, 2016 at 6:12 pm  Comments (1)  

How Finland Handles Education: By Doing About the Opposite of Everything Advocated by American Educational ‘Reformers’

Yet another article on the Finnish education miracle, this one in The Guardian. Definitely worth reading.

How Trump Thinks

Somehow I got on a list of Carson and Trump supporters and they beg me for donations. You might be curious as to how Trump makes his pitch. I am pasting the entire thing.

His argument, made without any evidence whatsoever is that it’s utterly shocking that Hillary and her “cronies” accuse him and his supporters of racism even though there is none, which shows that she’s “crooked”. Meaning that he, Trump, is honest.

I never have  considered myself a “crony” of Ms Clinton, but Mr Trump has a many-decade-long long, documented history of racist rental practices and shady, corrupt and dishonest business ethics Which he learned from one of the shadiest lawyers – Roy Cohn. Not all of his supporters are racist, but some of them definitely are (unless you also swallow the belief that Nazis and Kluxers aren’t racists!!).

Anyway, here goes:

Sent from my iPhone
On Aug 31, 2016, at 9:10 AM, Donald J. Trump <> wrote:
Please find a special message from one of our advertisers, Trump Make America Great Again Committee.

Make America Great Again
Can you believe the latest lies and smear tactics from the Clinton campaign?
They have no shame, and they are panicking. They see our tremendous momentum on the ground and they will do ANYTHING to stop it.
So now they’re resorting to the most desperate play in the tired Democrat playbook – claiming racism where there is zero basis in fact. It is gutter politics at its worst and shows how scared Crooked Hillary is.
Our campaign is about UNITING the American people, so that we can fight together to build a stronger and more prosperous country for ALL of us!
Don’t let them get away with these horrible lies, Guy. JOIN us today and help fight back, and I’ll match your contribution up to $1 million. But ACT NOW, because our end-of-month deadline is coming up fast at MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!
These desperate attacks are based on outright lies, and it’s really pathetic and disgraceful.
But when it comes to Crooked Hillary, nothing surprises me anymore!
The worst part about it is she’s not just lying about me.
She’s lying about every one of my TENS OF MILLIONS of supporters across the country. She’s disparaging YOU. This is what she thinks of ALL of us.
Don’t let her win, Guy. There could not be a better time to get involved.
Join our campaign today, and I’ll match your contribution so that it will make DOUBLE the impact in our efforts.
Together, we can win this historic race and shut down the corrupt Clinton political machine for good!
Thank you, Guy. I hope you choose to get involved, and I greatly appreciate any support you’re able to help with.
Best wishes,
Donald J. Trump
Donald J. Trump
P.S. It’s clear that Crooked Hillary and her cronies will say and do anything to divert attention from the scandal that has engulfed her – more details about her shady dealings through Clinton Foundation emerge every day! We can’t let her LIE her way into the White House, and we know the liberal media will NEVER hold her accountable for her dishonesty. That’s why I’m counting on your help to fight back and WIN!
I’ll match your support dollar-for-dollar if you JOIN right now with a special contribution. Don’t wait Guy – time is running out!



Contributions to the Trump Make America Great Again Committee are not deductible for federal income tax purposes.

Paid for by Trump Make America Great Again Committee, a joint fundraising committee authorized by and composed of Donald J. Trump for President, Inc. and the Republican National Committee

Published in: on August 31, 2016 at 10:58 am  Comments (1)  

Yes, Donald Trump has Long Been a Racist POS

Details in this NYT article show that Donald J Trump and his father have long discriminated against blacks by systematically refusing to rent them housing.

So his racist remarks during his presidential campaign are not accidents. 

Published in: on August 28, 2016 at 12:40 pm  Comments (2)  

Donald Trump is a Sociopath Who Has Fooled a Lot of People

Readers of this blog will note that I haven’t written much recently.

They will also probably be able to predict that I don’t like the current Republican candidate for President of the United States.

In fact, I think that Donald Trump is a classic example of a master sociopath. He has no remorse for any of his evil deeds, such as the thousands of contractors and employees whom he has stiffed. He doesn’t care at all that his positions on any given matter often change overnight, and that he has scapegoated many groups of honest, hard-working people, and that he has literally no actual political program.

Quick: what do the KKK, the various neo-Nazis around the world, former Iraqi Baath regime loyalists, Vladimir Putin, the current Turkish government, ISIS, and Donald Trump all have in common? They all go out of their way to repeat lies that have been repeatedly shown to be utterly false.

What’s even more scary is that Trump’s uncanny media savvy has fooled literally millions of Americans into thinking that he cares about them. He represents everything bad in American history: the racism, the super-exploitation of immigrants and blacks, the conniving with open criminals like the Mafia, the maldistribution of wealth upwards to the schemers and con-men, and overall corruption.

I strongly recommend that you read what Trump’s former ghost-writer now says about Trump. Tony Schwartz followed the con-man around for several months back in the late 1980’s in order to write “The Art of the Deal”, and now is very much alarmed. He says,

“I put lipstick on a pig,” he said. “I feel a deep sense of remorse that I contributed to presenting Trump in a way that brought him wider attention and made him more appealing than he is.” He went on, “I genuinely believe that if Trump wins and gets the nuclear codes there is an excellent possibility it will lead to the end of civilization.”

If he were writing “The Art of the Deal” today, Schwartz said, it would be a very different book with a very different title. Asked what he would call it, he answered, “The Sociopath.”

“Trump has been written about a thousand ways from Sunday, but this fundamental aspect of who he is doesn’t seem to be fully understood,” Schwartz told me. “It’s implicit in a lot of what people write, but it’s never explicit—or, at least, I haven’t seen it.

And that is that it’s impossible to keep him focussed on any topic, other than his own self-aggrandizement, for more than a few minutes, and even then . . . ” Schwartz trailed off, shaking his head in amazement. He regards Trump’s inability to concentrate as alarming in a Presidential candidate. “If he had to be briefed on a crisis in the Situation Room, it’s impossible to imagine him paying attention over a long period of time,” he said.

“Lying is second nature to him,” Schwartz said. “More than anyone else I have ever met, Trump has the ability to convince himself that whatever he is saying at any given moment is true, or sort of true, or at least ought to be true.” Often, Schwartz said, the lies that Trump told him were about money—“how much he had paid for something, or what a building he owned was worth, or how much one of his casinos was earning when it was actually on its way to bankruptcy.”

Predictably, Trump has sent his lawyers to counter-attack. Schwartz is standing his ground. 

I think it is really, really important that Donald Trump NOT be our next president.

[By the way, I disagree with a number of Hillary Clinton’s past and present positions on certain foreign and domestic issues. She is way too chummy with millionaires and billionaires like Donald Trump. (Let’s keep in mind that Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump and Mike Pence were all in favor of invading Iraq!) And like Bill Clinton, GWBush and Obama, I think she is completely wrong on all of the solutions that they offer to our very real educational problems. When people scream about Benghazi, they utterly ignore the fact that their hero, Ronald Reagan, just plain pulled out of Lebanon after a suicide bomber killed 241 Marines asleep in their beds.

[But the attacks on Ms. Clinton are simply nutty — way too many Americans get their views from the fact-free vitriol provided by Fox News (sic). Just like way too many people listened to the racist, anti-semitic diatribes of Father McCoughlin during the 1920s and 1930s.]



%d bloggers like this: