A closer look at charter and regular public school enrollments, percentages of students at risk, and percentages of students ‘proficient’

Here is another look at the brand-new data concerning four variables in the District of Columbia schools, about which I wrote a couple of days ago. The difference here is that the dots representing the schools are more-or=less proportional to the size of the student body.

1. Is this a regular public school, or a charter school (blue or red):

2. What fraction of the kids at that school are officially considered to be At Risk? (That’s the scale along the x-axis at the bottom of the page)

3. What is the average percentage of the kids at that school are ‘proficient’ in reading and math on the DC-CAS? (That’s the scale along the y-axis at the left-hand side of the page)

4. How big is the school? (That’s the size of the dot, more or less; the legend is at the bottom left-hand corner of the graph)

Time spent looking carefully at this graph will be well-spent. If you click on it, it will expand.

It will certainly show that charter schools have not revolutionized education for the better in DC: for both types of schools, there remains a very strong, negative correlation between the percentages of kids At Risk and ‘pass’ rates on the DC-CAS.

Note that most schools have between 200 and 500 students and that most of the ones that are smaller are actually charter schools. As I wrote a couple of days ago, the schools with the largest fraction of At-Risk students (say, over 2/3 of the student body) are almost all regular DC public schools.

On the second graph, which is otherwise identical to the first, I’ve labeled some of the larger schools.

fixed bicolor, size of school and at risk vs average dc cas 2014 proficiency, both regular public and charter, dc

Here is the one with names of some of the larger schools, so you can see how individual schools fall on this graph.

(Sorry, I there was not enough room to label every single one, and my non-existent HTML skills won’t allow me to make it so that any of the dots are clickable. If any of my readers know how to do that and would like to offer to make that happen, then please let me know in the comments.)

again fixed and revised names and bicolor, size of school and at risk vs average dc cas 2014 proficiency, both regular public and charter, dc

And here is the entire data table. So you can see where every single school lies on these three dimensions.

(PS: I added a few more names of schools and corrected four other small errors, two pointed out by an alert reader.. 2/22/2015)

How Well are Charter Schools in DC Educating Students Who are Officially At-Risk?

The results may surprise you.

To answer this question, I used some recent data. I just found out that the DC City Council has begun requiring that schools enumerate the number of students who are officially At-Risk. They define this as students who are

“homeless, in the District’s foster care system, qualify for Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) or the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), or high school students that are one year older, or more, than the expected age for the grade in which the students are enrolled.” (That last group is high school students who have been held back at least one time at some point in their school career.)

So, it’s a simple (but tedious) affair for me to plot the percentage of such at risk students, at each of the roughly 200 publicly-funded schools in Washington, DC, versus the average percentage of students who were proficient or advanced in math and reading on the 2014 DC-CAS.

I was rather shocked by the results. Here are my main conclusions:

1. For almost all of the schools, to get a rough idea of the percent of students passing the DC-CAS, simply subtract 90% minus the number of students ‘At-Risk’. The correlation is very, very strong.

2. There are only THREE DC charter schools with 70% or more of their students At-Risk, whereas there are THIRTY-ONE such regular public schools. So much for the idea that the charter schools would do a better job of educating the hardest-to-reach students (the homeless, those on food stamps, those who have already failed one or more grades, etc).

3. The only schools that have more than 90% of their students ‘passing’ the DC-CAS standardized tests remain, to this day, the small handful of schools in relatively-affluent upper Northwest DC with relatively high percentages of white and Asian students..(Unless you include Sharpe Health school, where students who cannot feed or dress themselves or hold a pencil are somehow deemed ‘proficient’ or ‘advanced’ by methods I can only guess at…)

4. As I’ve indicated before, it appears that for the most part, DC’s charter schools are mostly enrolling smaller percentages of At-Risk, high-poverty students but higher fractions of the students in the middle of the wealth/family-cohesion spectrum than the regular DC public schools. There are a few exceptions among the charter schools: BASIS, Yu Ying, Washington Latin and a few others are succeeding in attracting families and students at the high end of the socio-economic and academic scales.

5. It looks like we are now turning into a tripartite school system: one for affluent and well-educated familes (relatively high fractions of whites and Asians; mostly but not all in regular Ward 3 public schools); one for those in the middle (mostly blacks and hispanics, many enrolled in charter schools), and one for those at the seriously low end of the socio-economic spectrum, overwhelmingly African-American, largely At Risk, and mostly in highly-segregated regular public schools.

Very, very sad.

Here is the graph that sums it all up. Click on it to see a larger version.

bicolor, at risk vs average dc cas 2014 proficiency, both regular public and charter, dc

In blue we have the regular public schools of Washington DC for which I have DC-CAS data for 2014, from grades 3 through 8 and grade 10. In red we have the privately-run but publicly-funded charter schools. Along the horizontal axis, we have the percentage of students who are officially At Risk as defined by the DC CIty Council. Along the vertical axis, we have the average percentage of students who scored ‘proficient’ or ‘advanced’ in math and reading on the DC-CAS at those schools. The green line is the line of best fit as calculated by Excel. Notice that the data points pretty much follow that green line, slanting down and to the right.

To nobody’s surprise, at both the charter and regular public schools, on the whole, the greater the percentage of students at a school who are At Risk, the smaller the percentage of students who ‘pass’ the DC-CAS standardized tests.

The colors do help us see that at the far right-hand end of the graph, there are lots of blue dots and only a small number of red ones. This means that the vast majority of schools with high percentages of At Risk students are regular DC public schools. You could interpret that to mean that parents in more stable families in those neighborhoods are fleeing from what they see as the bad influence of potential classmates who are extremely poor, homeless, have already repeated a grade, and so on, and are flocking to charter schools who have the freedom to expel or ‘counsel out’ such students and to impose a relatively strict behavior code that the DC Council forbids the regular public schools from using. (Their latest initiative is to forbit ALL out-of-school suspensions, no matter what…)

Dots that are above the slanted green line supposedly represent schools that are doing a better job at teaching to the tests than would be predicted by the At-Risk status alone. Dots below the line are doing a worse job than would be predicted. Notice that there are dots of both colors both above and below the line.

=====

I wish to thank the indefatigable Mary Levy for collecting and passing on this data. You can find the original data source at the OSSE website, but I’ve saved the larger table (all 2008-2014 DC-CAS data) on Google Drive at this link. I took the average of the percentage of students ‘passing’ the DC-CAS in math and in reading as the proficiency rate. The note on the at-risk data table reads as follows:

Data Source: SY2013-14 student-level data from OSSE. The list includes DCPS traditional, DCPS citywide specialized, DCPS selective schools, and public charter schools, but excludes any DCPS or public charter adult education or alternative school. The definition of at risk students includes students who are homeless, in the District’s foster care system, qualify for Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) or the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), or high school students that are one year older, or more, than the expected age for the grade in which the students are enrolled.

Listing of Educational Bloggers

This is a list of the blogs maintained at the present time by some fellow-activist teachers and others.

Enjoy!

BLOGGER NAME BLOG NAME BLOG WEBSITE
A Teacher on Teaching A Teacher on Teaching http://ateacheronteaching.blogspot.com/
Aaron Barlow Aaron Barlow http://academeblog.org/author/aaronbarlow/ or http://audsandens.blogspot.com/
Accountable Talk Accountable Talk http://www.accountabletalk.com/
Adam Bessie Automated Teaching Machine http://adambessie.com/
Alan Singer Alan Singer http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-singer/
Alexandra Miletta Alexandra Miletta http://alexandramiletta.blogspot.com
Alice Mercer Reflections on Teaching http://mizmercer.edublogs.org
Allan Jones Allan Jones https://www.facebook.com/groups/1398276720427252/
Amy Moore Amy Moore http://www.desmoinesregister.com/topic/065294af-047d-4b86-beb4-0d401eb82096/
Andy Spears Tennessee Education Report http://tnedreport.com/
Ani McHugh Teacherbiz http://teacherbiz.wordpress.com
Ann Policelli Cronin Ann Policelli Cronin http://reallearningct.com/
Anne Tenaglia Teacher’s Lessons Learned http://teacherslessonslearned.blogspot.com/
Anthony Cody Anthony Cody http://www.livingindialogue.com/
Arthur Getzel The Public Educator (aka liberalteacher) http://thepubliceducator.com/
Arthur Goldstein NYCEducator http://nyceducator.com/
Arthur H. Camins Arthur H. Camins http://www.arthurcamins.com/
Audrey Amrein-Beardsley VAMboozled http://vamboozled.com/
Aurelio M. Montemayor Parent Leadership in Education http://parentleadershipined.blogspot.com/
Badass Teachers Association (Marla Kilfoyle, Melissa Tomlinson) Badass Teachers Association http://badassteachers.blogspot.com/ and http://www.badassteacher.org/
Barbara Madeloni Educators for a Democratic Union http://www.educatorsforademocraticunion.com/
Barbara McClanahan readingdoc http://readingdoc.wordpress.com/
Betsy Combier Parent Advocatees http://www.parentadvocates.org/
Big Education Ape Big Education Ape http://bigeducationape.blogspot.com/
Bill Betzen School Achieve Project http://schoolarchiveproject.blogspot.com/
Bill Boyle Educarenow http://educarenow.wordpress.com/
Bob Sikes Scathing Purple Musings http://bobsidlethoughtsandmusings.wordpress.com/
Bob Valiant Defend-Ed http://defend-ed.org/
Bonnie Cunard Continuing Change http://gatorbonbc.wordpress.com/ orhttp://bonniecunardmargolin.weebly.com/
Bonny Buffington BBBloviations http://www.bbbloviations.blogspot.com/
Brett Bymaster Stop Rocketship http://www.stoprocketship.com
Brett Dickerson Life At the Intersections http://www.brettdickerson.net/
Brian Cohen Making the grade blog http://www.bncohen.com/
Brian Redmond rsbandman http://rsbandman.wordpress.com
Bruce Baker School Finance 101 http://schoolfinance101.wordpress.com/
Bruce Bowers Reflections on teaching and learning www.tremphil.com
Carol Burris Carol Burris http://roundtheinkwell.com/ and Answer Sheet
Chaz Chaz’s School Daze http://chaz11.blogspot.com/
Chris Cerrone Children should not be a number http://www.nystoptesting.com/
Chris Guerrieri Jaxkidsmatter http://jaxkidsmatter.blogspot.com/
Chris Thinnes Chris Thinnes http://chris.thinnes.me
Christian Goering Edusanity http://www.edusanity.com/
Christopher Martell On Social Studies and Education http://christophermartell.blogspot.com
Christopher Tienken Christopher Tienken http://christienken.com/blog/
Christopher Wooleyhand Common Sense School Leadership http://christopherwooleyhand.edublogs.org
Claudia Swisher Claudia Swisher http://fourthgenerationteacher.blogspot.com/
Cynthia Liu K12NN News Network http://k12newsnetwork.com/
Dan McConnell Truth and Consequences http://dan-mcconnell.blogspot.com/
Daniel Katz Daniel Katz http://danielskatz.net/
Darcie Cimarusti Mother Crusader http://mothercrusader.blogspot.com/
David Chura Kids in the System http://kidsinthesystem.wordpress.com/
David Cohen InterACT:  Accomplished California Teacher http://accomplishedcaliforniateachers.wordpress.com/
David Ellison A Teacher’s Mark’s http://ateachersmarks.blogspot.com/
David Greene DCG MENTORING https://dcgmentor.wordpress.com 
Debbie Forward PFF Faculty Lounge http://pfffacultylounge.wordpress.com/
Deborah McCallum Big Ideas in Education http://bigideasineducation.ca/
Deborah Meier Deborah Meier http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/Bridging-Differences/
Demian Godon Reconsidering TFA https://reconsideringtfa.wordpress.com/
Derek Black Education Law Prof Blog http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/education_law/
Diane Aoki The Teacher I Want to Be http://dianeaoki.blogspot.com/
Diane Ravitch Diane Ravitch http://dianeravitch.net
DOE Nutes DOE Nuts Blog http://nycdoenuts.blogspot.com/
Don Russell Lifting The Curtain http://liftingthecurtainoneducation.wordpress.com/
Dora Taylor Seattle Education http://seattleducation2010.wordpress.com/
Doug Martin Doug Martin http://www.schoolsmatter.info/ 
Edward Berger Edward Berger http://edwardfberger.com/
Elizabeth Rose Yo Miz http://yomizthebook.com/
Francesco Portelos Educator Fights Back  or Don’t Tread on Educators http://dtoe.org/ or http://protectportelos.org/
Fred Klonsky Fred Klonsky http://preaprez.wordpress.com/
Gary Rubinstein Gary Rubinstein https://garyrubinstein.wordpress.com/
Gene Glass Education in Two Words http://ed2worlds.blogspot.com/
George Schmidt Substance News http://www.substancenews.net/
George Wood George Wood http://www.essentialschools.org/
Gerri Songer Gerri Song http://gerriksonger.wordpress.com/
Glen Brown Teacher Poet Musician http://teacherpoetmusicianglenbrown.blogspot.com/
Good Morning Art Teacher Good Morning Art Teacher http://goodmorningartteacher.blogspot.com/
Greg Mild Plumberbund http://www.plunderbund.com/
Guy Brandenburg Guy Brandenburg https://gfbrandenburg.wordpress.com/
Helen Gym Philadelphia Public School Notebook http://thenotebook.org/blog
Jack McKay Horace Mann League Blog http://blog.hmleague.org/
James Arnold Dr. James Arnold http://drjamesarnold.blogspot.com/
James Avington Miller, Jr The War Report on Public Education http://thewarreportonpubliceducation.wordpress.com and http://bbsradio.com/thewarreport
James Boutin An Urban Teachers Education http://www.anurbanteacherseducation.com/
James Chascherrie Stop Common Core in Washington State http://stopcommoncorewa.wordpress.com/
James Hamric Hammy’s Education Blog http://edreformblog.wordpress.com/
Jan Resseger Jan Resseger http://janresseger.wordpress.com/
Jane Nixon Willis Staying Strong in School http://stayingstronginschool.blogspot.com/
Jason France Crazy Crawfish http://crazycrawfish.wordpress.com/
Jason L. Endacott EduSanity http://www.edusanity.com/
Jason Stanford Jason Stanford http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jason-stanford/
Jeff Bryant Jeff Bryant http://educationopportunitynetwork.org/
Jen Hogue V.A.M. It! http://valueaddedmeasureit.blogspot.com/
Jennifer Berkshire EduShyster http://edushyster.com/
Jesse Hagopian Jesse Hagopian http://iamaneducator.com/
Jessie Ramey Yinzercation http://yinzercation.wordpress.com/
Jill Conroy The Indignant Teacher http://theindignantteacher.wordpress.com/
Jo Lieb Poetic Justice http://poeticjusticect.com/
Joe Bower For the love of learning http://www.joebower.org/
John J. Viall A Teacher on Teaching http://ateacheronteaching.blogspot.com/
John Kuhn EdGator https://edgator.com
John Young Transparent Christina http://transparentchristina.wordpress.com/
Jonathan Lovell Jonathan Lovell’s Blog http://jonathanlovell.blogspot.com/
Jonathan Pelto Wait, What? http://jonathanpelto.com/
Jose Vilson Jose Vilson http://thejosevilson.com/
Joshua Block Joshua Block http://mrjblock.com/
Julian Vasquez Heilig Cloaking Inquity http://cloakinginequity.com/
Justin Aion Relearning to Teach http://relearningtoteach.blogspot.com/
Karren Harper Royal Edutalknola http://edutalknola.com/
Katie Lapham Critical Classrooms https://criticalclassrooms.wordpress.com/
Ken Derstine Defend Public Education http://www.defendpubliceducation.net/
Ken Previti Reclaim Reform http://reclaimreform.com/
Kenneth Bernstein Teacher Ken http://www.dailykos.com/user/teacherken
Kevin Welner Kevin Welner http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kevin-welner/ andhttp://nepc.colorado.edu
Lani Cox The Missing Teacher http://lanivcox.blogspot.com/
Larry Cuban Larry Cuban http://larrycuban.wordpress.com/
Larry Feinberg Keystone State Education Coalition http://keystonestateeducationcoalition.blogspot.com/
Lee Barrios Geauxteacher http://www.geauxteacher.net/
Leonard Isenberg Perdaily http://www.perdaily.com/
Leonie Haimson Class Size Matters http://nycpublicschoolparents.blogspot.com/
Levi B Cavener Idahospromise http://idahospromise.org/
Linda Thomas Restore Reason http://restorereason.com/
Lisa Guisbond Fairtest http://www.fairtest.org/
Lloyd Lofthouse Crazy Normal the classroom expose http://crazynormaltheclassroomexpose.com/  or http://lloydlofthouse.org/
Lucianna Sanson The War Report on Public Education https://thewarreportonpubliceducation.wordpress.com/
M. Shannon Hernandez My Final 40 Days http://myfinal40days.com/
Maria Rosa THE INSURGENT TEACHER BLOG http://theinsurgentteacher.blogspot.com/
Marie Corfield Marie Corfield http://mcorfield.blogspot.com/
Marion Brady Marion Brady http://www.marionbrady.com/
Mark Naison With a Brooklyn Accent and Dump Duncan http://withabrooklynaccent.blogspot.com/ and http://dumpduncan.org/
Mark Weber Jersey Jazzman http://jerseyjazzman.blogspot.com/
Martha Infante Martha Infante http://dontforgetsouthcentral.blogspot.com/
Matt Farmer Matt Farmer http://www.huffingtonpost.com/matt-farmer/
Mel Katz The Education Activist: From Student to Teacher https://theeducationactivist.wordpress.com/
Melissa Westbrook Seattle Schools Community Forum http://saveseattleschools.blogspot.com/
Mercedes Schneider Deutsch29 http://deutsch29.wordpress.com/
Michael Klonsky Michael Klonsky http://michaelklonsky.blogspot.com/ and http://schoolingintheownershipsociety.blogspot.com/
Michelle Gunderson Education Matters https://www.facebook.com/michelle.gunderson.education.matters
Mike Deshotels Louisiana Educator http://louisianaeducator.blogspot.com/
Mike Rose Mike Rose’s Blog http://mikerosebooks.blogspot.com
Mike Warner Education Under Attack http://educationunderattack.info/
Minnsanity Minnsanity http://minnsanity.wordpress.com/
Morna McDermott Education Alchemy http://www.educationalchemy.com/
Mrs. Fanning LA Woman http://fanninglawoman.blogspot.com/
Ms Kate Ms Katie’s Ramblings http://mskatiesramblings.blogspot.com/
Nancy Bailey Nancy Bailey’s Education Website http://nancyebailey.com/
Nancy Flanagan Teacher in a Strange Land http://blogs.edweek.org/teachers/teacher_in_a_strange_land/
Nicholas Tampio Nicholas Tampio http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nicholas-tampio/
Nikhil Goyal Nikhil Goyal http://nikhilgoyal.me/
Norm Scott Ed Notes Online http://ednotesonline.blogspot.com/
Ogo Okoye-Johnson Ogo Okoye-Johnson http://ogookoye-johnson.net/
OK Education Truth okeducationtruths http://okeducationtruths.wordpress.com/
Outside The Box Outside the Box http://teacher-anon.blogspot.com/ 
Patrick Walsh http://raginghorse.wordpress.com/
Paul Horton Education News http://www.educationviews.org/author/paulh/
Paul Thomas The becoming radical http://radicalscholarship.wordpress.com/
Peggy Robertson Peg with Pen http://www.pegwithpen.com/
Perdido St School Perdido St School http://perdidostreetschool.blogspot.com/
Peter DeWitt Peter DeWitt http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/finding_common_ground/
Peter Goodman Ed in the Apple http://mets2006.wordpress.com/
Peter Greene Curmudgucation http://www.curmudgucation.blogspot.com/
Phillip Cantor Sustainable Education Transformation http://phillipcantor.com/
Rachael Stickland Student Privacy Matters http://www.studentprivacymatters.org/
Rachel Levy All Things Education http://allthingsedu.blogspot.com/
Ralph Ratto Opine I will http://rlratto.wordpress.com/
Ray Salazar The White Rino http://www.chicagonow.com/white-rhino
Rob Miller View From the Edge http://www.viewfromtheedge.net/
Rob Panning-Miller Public Education Justice Alliance of Minnesota http://pejamn.blogspot.com/
Robert Cotto Jr. The Cities, Suburbs & Schools Project http://commons.trincoll.edu/cssp/
Robert D. Skeels Solidaridad http://rdsathene.blogspot.com/
Russ Walsh Russ on Reading http://russonreading.blogspot.com/
Ruth Conniff Public School Shakedown http://www.publicschoolshakedown.org/
Sam Chaltain Sam Chaltain http://www.samchaltain.com
Sara Roos Sara Roos http://redqueeninla.com/
Sarah Blaine Parenting the core http://parentingthecore.wordpress.com/
Sarah Darer Littman Sarah Darer Littman http://www.ctnewsjunkie.com
Sarah Lahm Sarah Lahm http://www.tcdailyplanet.net/eyes-education
Save Public Education Save Public Education
Sharon Higgins Charter School Scandals http://charterschoolscandals.blogspot.com/
Shaun Johnson Chalk Face http://atthechalkface.com/
Sherman Dorn Sherman Dorn http://shermandorn.com/wordpress/
South Bronx School South Bronx School http://www.southbronxschool.com/
Stephanie Rivera Teacher Under Construction http://teacherunderconstruction.com/
Stephen Dyer 10th Period http://10thperiod.blogspot.com/
Stephen Krashen Stephen Krashen http://www.schoolsmatter.info/ and http://skrashen.blogspot.com/
Steve Hinnefeld Steve Hinnefeld http://inschoolmatters.wordpress.com/
Steve O’Donoghue Steve O’Donogue http://www.counterintuitive.com/
Steve Strieker One Teachers Perspective http://oneteachersperspective.blogspot.com/
Steven Singer Gad Fly On the Wall Blog http://gadflyonthewallblog.wordpress.com/
Stu Bloom Live Long and Prsoper http://bloom-at.blogspot.com/
Sullio The Pen is Mightier than the Person http://sullio.blogspot.com/
Susan DuFresne Educating the Gates Foundation http://educatingthegatesfoundation.com/
Susan DuFresne and Katie Lapham Teachers Letters to Bill Gates http://teachersletterstobillgates.com/
Susan Ohanian Susan Ohanian http://www.susanohanian.org/
TB Furman tbfurman http://www.tbfurman.us/
TC Dad Gone Wild http://norinrad10.wordpress.com/
Teacher Reality Teacher Reality http://teacherreality.com/
Teacher Tom Teacher Tom http://teachertomsblog.blogspot.com/
Ted Cohen Newark Schools For Sale http://NewarkSchoolsForSale.wordpress.com
The Assailed Teacher http://theassailedteacher.com/
The Teaching Nomad The Teaching Nomad www.theteachingnomad.com/blog 
Tim Slekar Busted Pencils http://bustedpencils.com/ 
Tom Aswell Louisiana Voice http://louisianavoice.com/
Tracy Novick Who-cester Blog http://who-cester.blogspot.com/
Ty Alper Ty Alper (SF School Board candidate) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ty-alper/ or http://www.tyalper.org
Urban Ed Urban Ed http://nycurbaned.blogspot.com/
Vanessa Vaile Precarious Faculty Blog http://www.precariousfacultyblog.com/ or http://nationalmobilizationforequity.org/
Wag the Dog Wag the Dog http://vigornotrigor.wordpress.com/
Walt Gardner Walt Garnder http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/walt_gardners_reality_check/
Wayne Gersen Network Schools http://waynegersen.com/
Wendy Lecker Wendy Lecker http://www.stamfordadvocate.com
Xian Barrett Xian Barrett http://newvoicestrategies.org/
Yohuru Williams Yohuru Williams http://www.yohuruwilliams.net/
Yong Zhao Education in the Age of Globalization http://zhaolearning.com

Kaya Henderson Really Doesn’t Know How to Run a School System

DCPS Chancellor Kaya Henderson told the city two days ago, “I want to be clear. We know what we need to do, and we have what it takes to get it done.”

That is patently untrue.

Even by her own yardsticks, namely test scores, Henderson and her kind of ‘reform’ has so far been a complete failure; Continuing the churn-and-test-prep regime won’t make it any better

As I wrote in a comment on the article in the Washington Post:

All of Henderson’s boasts of continuous progress are completely bogus. 
 
If you look at the scores on the DC-CAS for every single subgroup, you can see that they have stagnated since 2009, which was the year before Rhee, Kamras and Henderson implemented their trademark reforms (IMPACT, TLF, VAM “merit pay” and eliminating seniority protections for teachers). The gaps between white students and hispanic or black students have NOT narrowed since that time. There were some increases from 2006-2009, but it’s not clear how much of that was due to adults cheating, or simply because students and teachers were adapting to a brand-new test. (You may recall that the DC-CAS was administered for the very first time in 2006, and the percentages of kids deemed ‘proficient’ dropped quite a bit in comparison to what they were under the old test, especially in math.) 
 
Also: out of the 78 measurable goals set by Rhee and four large foundations, in order to earn that $64.5 million grant in 2009, the DCPS leadership has achieved a mere one and one-half of those goals (and I’m being generous with the one-half). That is a success rate of TWO PERCENT. 
 
In other words, Rhee and Henderson have an almost perfect record of failure, none of which is publicized by the media (esp. not WaPo editorial staff) but is easy to see if you look at the official OSSE statistics and are willing to dig a little bit.  
 
I’ve done some digging and have made some pretty easy-to-understand graphs showing how much Rhee and Henderson have failed. Look at my blog, gfbrandenburg.wordpress.com , and in particular at http://bit.ly/10mna8c , http://bit.ly/10mneEY , and http://bit.ly/1ptal1K . 
 
After you read those blog posts, can you explain to me why Kaya Henderson still has a job? It is so clear that mayoral control has been a complete failure!

What I actually had time to say …

Since I had to abbreviate my remarks, here is what I actually said:

I am Guy Brandenburg, retired DCPS mathematics teacher.

To depart from my text, I want to start by proposing a solution: look hard at the collaborative assessment model being used a few miles away in Montgomery County [MD] and follow the advice of Edwards Deming.

Even though I personally retired before [the establishment of the] IMPACT [teacher evaluation system], I want to use statistics and graphs to show that the Value-Added measurements that are used to evaluate teachers are unreliable, invalid, and do not help teachers improve instruction. To the contrary: IVA measurements are driving a number of excellent, veteran teachers to resign or be fired from DCPS to go elsewhere.

Celebrated mathematician John Ewing says that VAM is “mathematical intimidation” and a “modern, mathematical version of the Emperor’s New Clothes.”

I agree.

One of my colleagues was able to pry the value-added formula [used in DC] from [DC data honcho] Jason Kamras after SIX MONTHS of back-and-forth emails. [Here it is:]

value added formula for dcps - in mathtype format

One problem with that formula is that nobody outside a small group of highly-paid consultants has any idea what are the values of any of those variables.

In not a single case has the [DCPS] Office of Data and Accountability sat down with a teacher and explained, in detail, exactly how a teacher’s score is calculated, student by student and class by class.

Nor has that office shared that data with the Washington Teachers’ Union.

I would ask you, Mr. Catania, to ask the Office of Data and Accountability to share with the WTU all IMPACT scores for every single teacher, including all the sub-scores, for every single class a teacher has.

Now let’s look at some statistics.

My first graph is completely random data points that I had Excel make up for me [and plot as x-y pairs].

pic 3 - completely random points

Notice that even though these are completely random, Excel still found a small correlation: r-squared was about 0.08 and r was about 29%.

Now let’s look at a very strong case of negative correlation in the real world: poverty rates and student achievement in Nebraska:

pic  4 - nebraska poverty vs achievement

The next graph is for the same sort of thing in Wisconsin:

pic 5 - wisconsin poverty vs achievement

Again, quite a strong correlation, just as we see here in Washington, DC:

pic 6 - poverty vs proficiency in DC

Now, how about those Value-Added scores? Do they correlate with classroom observations?

Mostly, we don’t know, because the data is kept secret. However, someone leaked to me the IVA and classroom observation scores for [DCPS in] SY 2009-10, and I plotted them [as you can see below].

pic 7 - VAM versus TLF in DC IMPACT 2009-10

I would say this looks pretty much no correlation at all. It certainly gives teachers no assistance on what to improve in order to help their students learn better.

And how stable are Value-Added measurements [in DCPS] over time? Unfortunately, since DCPS keeps all the data hidden, we don’t know how stable these scores are here. However, the New York Times leaked the value-added data for NYC teachers for several years, and we can look at those scores to [find out]. Here is one such graph [showing how the same teachers, in the same schools, scored in 2008-9 versus 2009-10]:

pic 8 - value added for 2 successive years Rubenstein NYC

That is very close to random.

How about teachers who teach the same subject to two different grade levels, say, fourth-grade math and fifth-grade math? Again, random points:

pic 9 - VAM for same subject different grades NYC rubenstein

One last point:

Mayor Gray and chancellors Henderson and Rhee all claim that education in DC only started improving after mayoral control of the schools, starting in 2007. Look for yourself [in the next two graphs].

pic 11 - naep 8th grade math avge scale scores since 1990 many states incl dc

 

pic 12 naep 4th grade reading scale scores since 1993 many states incl dc

Notice that gains began almost 20 years ago, long before mayoral control or chancellors Rhee and Henderson, long before IMPACT.

To repeat, I suggest that we throw out IMPACT and look hard at the ideas of Edwards Deming and the assessment models used in Montgomery County.

Poverty, Segregation, and Test Scores in DC

While looking at the latest released NCLB test scores in Washington, DC, I was struck by the enormous number of students who are stuck in completely segregated schools, on the eve of the 50th anniversary of the March on Washington for civil rights and justice.

100% black student body and 100% of them on free or reduced-price lunches (i.e., poor) is the most obvious group of schools.

Followed by another very large group of schools that are 90-99% black & hispanic and 100% poor.

Very, very few schools have an actual mix of white, hispanic, black, and asian students.

This is true for both the regular public schools in DC and for the publicly-funded but privately-run charter schools.

Out of a  total of 181 DC schools for which I have data, 23 have ‘perfectly’ segregated student bodies — that is, every single kid is black and/or hispanic,  AND every single kid is eligible for free or reduced-price lunches.

Here is the list:

  1. Aiton Elementary
  2. Arts + Technology Public Charter
  3. Beers Elementary
  4. Burrville Elementary
  5. C. W.  Harris Elementary
  6. Center City (Congress Heights campus) Public  Charter
  7. Center City (Shaw campus) Public Charter
  8. Ferebee-Hope Elementary
  9. Garfield Elementary
  10. Howard  Road (MLK campus) Public Charter
  11. Howard Road (main campus) Public Charter
  12. Integrated Design Electronics Academy (IDEA) Public Charter
  13. Johnson Middle
  14. Martin Luther King Elementary
  15. Ludlow-Taylor Elementary
  16. Malcolm X Elementary
  17. Maya Angelou (Evans campus) Public Charter
  18. Meridian Public Charter
  19. Options Public Charter
  20. Randle Highlands Elementary
  21. Septima Clark Public Charter
  22. Simon Elementary
  23. Stanton Elementary

Poverty Isn’t Destiny?

Quite a few Ed Deformers say that Poverty Isn’t Destiny. They say that it doesn’t matter if a child has been subjected to lead poisoning, separation from parents, violent or otherwise cruel child abuse, inadequate nutrition, and has lacked dental or health care and the love and care of a family during the first, crucial years. All it takes is for a Bright Young Thing fresh out of college to work her butt off for two years before she goes to work for a bank — and all of those handicaps will be overcome, with no extra dollars invested, and maybe even less!

Or maybe not.

Lots of teachers have been working their butts off for many decades, doing their best, believe it or not (for the most part).

Here are two three graphs from Wisconsin that show how close the connection between the poverty rates and student achievement levels, at all of their schools for which they provide data. My data come from here and are for SY 2011-2012. In fact, you can download the entire spreadsheet for the state of Wisconsin if you click on this link:

http:reportcards.dpi.wi.gov/files/reportcards/xls/2011-12reportcarddata.xlsx

In both all three graphs, the percentage of students at the schools is along the horizontal (X) axis. In the first two, the average achievement score at the school is along the vertical (Y) axis.

In this first graph, Wisconsin uses a 100-point scale for overall student achievement.

wisconsin school overall student ach score by pct of poor kids

That is an incredibly strong correlation between poverty levels and student achievement. The fewer the proportion of poor students at a school, the better the achievement scores at that school.

I had Excel compute two correlation “trend” lines – one straight, in black, and one curved, in red following a third-degree polynomial, since it looks like we have a serious “Matthew effect” going on here. In either case, the R-squared and R values are very elevated, showing that, in fact, poverty is in fact destiny for a lot of kids.

The next graph is for reading only, but it shows essentially the same trend. School reading scores go from 0 to 50.

Wisconsin school READING scores by pct of poor kids

There are very few real-life correlations between two entities stronger than what you see in these two graphs.

This next graph is a little different, for two reasons: the y-axis is math, and it’s the percent of students deemed ‘proficient’ on whatever test Wisconsin is using. It also shows a very strong correlation.

wisconsin school poverty rate versus percent of students proficient in MATH

Widening US Educational Achievement Gap Between Rich and Poor?

A Stanford professor has analyzed data for the past 50 years, concluding that the gap in educational achievement between the wealthy and the poor has become considerably wider since about 1960; it’s now roughly twice as large as the black-white gap, when it used to be roughly the reverse!

A quote from his article,  http://cepa.stanford.edu/content/widening-academic-achievement-gap-between-rich-and-poor-new-evidence-and-possible

The widening academic achievement gap between the rich and the poor: New evidence and possible explanations

In this chapter I examine whether and how the relationship between family socioeconomic characteristics and academic achievement has changed during the last fifty years. In particular, I investigate the extent to which the rising income inequality of the last four decades has been paralleled by a similar increase in the income achievement gradient. As the income gap between high- and low-income families has widened, has the achievement gap between children in high- and low-income families also widened?

The answer, in brief, is yes. The achievement gap between children from high- and low-income families is roughly 30 to 40 percent larger among children born in 2001 than among those born twenty-five years earlier. In fact, it appears that the income achievement gap has been growing for at least fifty years, though the data are less certain for cohorts of children born before 1970. In this chapter, I describe and discuss these trends in some detail. In addition to the key finding that the income achievement gap appears to have widened substantially, there are a number of other important findings.

First, the income achievement gap (defined here as the income difference between a child from a family at the 90th percentile of the family income distribution and a child from a family at the 10th percentile) is now nearly twice as large as the black-white achievement gap. Fifty years ago, in contrast, the black-white gap was one and a half to two times as large as the income gap.

Published in: on December 23, 2012 at 11:56 am  Comments (1)  
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In Other Countries, Kids in Wealthier Schools Do Better Than Kids in Poorer Schools. Huge Surprise, Right?

Released today, the latest international studies of students in math, science, and reading (TIMMS and PIRLS) actually make interesting reading. You can find the the math report (TIMMS) here and the reading and literacy report here. They are pretty long.

Unfortunately and as usual, the few on-line and printed reports ABOUT the studies seem to be cherry-picking data to find what they want — much like pundits pontificating and bloviating on TV the exact same ‘talking points’, whether there’s any evidence for what they believe or not. I just saw a headline: “More Bad News for US Students.”

At least I try to look at the data itself.

A brief quote from the TIMMS ‘executive summary’, which is as far as I had gotten when I first wrote this yesterday morning:

Home Resources Strongly Related to Mathematics Achievement

Research consistently shows a strong positive relationship between achievement and indicators of socioeconomic status, such as parents’ or caregivers’ level of education. At the fourth and sixth grades, TIMSS used the parents’ reports on the availability of key home resources to create the Home Resources for Learning scale, including parents’ education, parents’ occupation, books in the home, and study supports. Internationally, on average, the 17 percent of students with Many Resources had substantially higher mathematics achievement than the nine percent with Few Resources—a 119-point difference. However, 
almost three-quarters of the fourth grade students (74%) had Some Resources.
At the eighth and ninth grades, TIMSS asked the students themselves about their parents’  education, books in the home, and study supports, with similar results. Internationally, the twelve percent of eighth grade students with Many Resources had the highest average achievement, the two-thirds with Some Resources had the next highest achievement,  and the one-fifth with Few Resources had the lowest average achievement.

Note that this is in ALL of the countries: kids from poorer backgrounds do less well in school, and the inverse: wealthier kids do better in school. All over the world, not just in the USA.

Duh.

Here are the tables that accompanied that text:

POVERTY AND LEARNING

 

Now that I’ve had a bit more time to look at the data, I see that at the fourth grade, I can look at reported differences between average scores at schools where the principal says the kids come from wealthier families, and average scores at schools where the principal says the students come from more disadvantaged families. It’s one way of estimating what the famous rich-poor achievement gap is like in various nations, but we should be cautious with the data: it all has pretty large standard deviations according to TIMMS itself, meaning that the various bars in this graph are likely to be, in reality, much higher or much lower than this chart (which I made using the data in exhibit 5.3, page 514).

grade 4 rich poor schools gap TIMMS

 

If this information is accurate, the US has a somewhat larger ‘math poverty’ gap than most other countries, but it’s by no means the worst. And it also shows that lots of other countries actually have similar achievement gaps in 4th grade math between two groups of schools:

Quoting from the report:

… the More Affluent schools had more than one-fourth of their students from affluent home backgrounds and not more than one-fourth from disadvantaged home backgrounds, and the More Disadvantaged schools had the reverse situation. The other schools were “in between.” Internationally, the students were distributed relatively equally across the three types of schools. On average, across countries at the fourth grade, 36 percent of the students attended schools with relatively more affluent students than disadvantaged students, and students in these schools had the highest average achievement (508). At the other end of the range, 30 percent of the students attended schools with relatively more disadvantaged students than affluent students, and students in these schools had the lowest average achievement (470). Although this overall achievement pattern was observed in most countries and benchmarking participants, there was a wide variation among participants in the percentages of students attending the three different economic categories of schools.

MAIN POINTS:

  1. The sky isn’t falling,
  2. US schools are neither the best nor the worst in the world.
  3. This data (like most educational dat) is actually quite fuzzy.
  4. All around the world, it appears that wealthier kids these days generally tend to do better in math at the 4th grade than poorer kids.
Published in: on December 12, 2012 at 2:07 pm  Leave a Comment  
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