More on Rigging Elections

Now, let us suppose that somehow the Hillary campaign actually managed to

(a) make sure that a rigged coin – supplied by them, not taken from somebody’s pocket – was used in each of the six coin toss cases

(b) figure out in advance which caucuses had to get those coins

(c) tell their person which side of the coin to choose in case a toin coss came up,

(d) none of the other folks noticed any of this skullduggery taking place right in front of their eyes — (by the way, you should watch this video of how this worked in practice)

THEN, yes, that weighted coin might help their odds, as you can see in this chart:

rigging-elections

I used the binomial theorem to figure this one out. Let me give a few examples: in the row that’s highlighted in green, the probability of heads and tails is both 50%, and as I indicated int he last post, the probability of getting ‘heads’ five times out of six is about 9.38%. However, if you could somehow figure out how to make a coin that came up ‘heads’ 60% of the time, then your chances of getting 5 heads would improve to 18.66%.

And if you could boost the unfairness of your coin to the point that it would come up heads 80% of the time then your chances of getting 5 ‘heads’ would be 39.37%. Still not a slam-dunk.

I only know of two ways to make a coin biased. One method is to carefully split two coins in half the hard way, and make a two-headed coin (or two-tailed) coin. Such coins are actually sold in magic shops.

The other method is to bend the coin slightly – I am told that the concave side will end up being on top more frequently (like a cup).

So, Hillary’s nasty minions would have had to either distribute a bunch of bent coins or two-headed coins, and nobody else would have had the brains or eyesight to notice, for this to have been rigged.

I don’t think so.

Support Ras Baraka!!

I just heard a speech by Ras Baraka at Busboys And Poets at 14th and V Streets NW in DC.

Wow!! Ras Baraka is GREAT!! He’s someone saying what I’ve been trying to say for a long time! I have to admit that I have tears in my eyes as I write this. He’s running for mayor of Newark to succeed that member of the billionaire’s wing of the Democratic Party, Cory Booker.

nora ras baraka 002

My admission was comped as a blogger and the first glass of great Cabernet Sauvignon was free; I paid for the second glass of wine and donated $100 to his campaign. It’s important that people from the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party actually win, instead of candidates like Cory Booker, Arne Duncan, or Emanuel Rahm, who represent the 1/10 of 1% just as much as any Republican politician.

I recorded the speech (with permission) and will figure out how to disseminate it best. I may transcribe it.

A few inaccurate quotes that I attempted to write down in real time:

“The struggle for democracy in the USA had never been finished– our job is to finish it”

“As mayor of Newark my job is to protect and improve the public sector, not to sell it off”

“The problem in Newark is not about smart mayors; it’s something systemic”

” which side are you on? My grandma always said there’s nothing in the middle of the road except yellow lines and dead armadillos”

[paraphrasing]; It’s really weird when you get someone quoting my dad [the late Amiri Baraka, born Leroi Brown] or MLK or Nelson Mandela and then they say ‘I’m closing down your school and giving it away to some billionaire’

[paraphrasing] it’s fine to fix up the buildings and improve the surroundings in areas that used to  be horribly crime-ridden reas [like here on 14th street NW in DC]; but now that it’s actually improved, let people who look like me continue to live there!

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