Looking at the ECDC figures on the current corona virus, I am struck by one thing: Some countries have tiny numbers of people dead from this disease, and some have enormous death tolls.
A lot of the nations with low COVID-19 mortality totals are not exactly famous for having wonderful medical systems> On the other hand, some of these nations are known for being relatively advanced and prosperous, and have well-equipped social networks.
So, what’s their secret?
I just made a list of all the nations with at least a half-million population that have so far had fewer than a hundred people who have died from COVID-19. After each one I list the number dead through today, June 20, 2020, and their population in millions. From that I derived the number of fatalities per million, or fpm. I have arranged them by continent, and then alphabetically by country name.
In ONLY ONE of these countries is the number of deaths per million population anywhere near what it is in the USA, namely about 354 dead per million to date. (That exception is El Salvador.) Many of the countries I listed have fewer than 1 fatality per million, which I denoted as “<1 fpm”.
In Africa:
Angola, 8 dead, pop 32 Million people, <1 fpm
Botswana, 1 dead, pop 2 M, <1 fpm
Benin, 11 dead, pop 12 M, 1 fpm
Burkina, Faso 53 dead, pop 20 M, 3 fpm
Burundi, 1 dead, pop 12 M, <1 fpm
Cape Verde, 8 dead, pop 0.5 M, 16 fpm
Central African Republic, 19 dead, pop 5 M, 4 fpm
Chad, 74 dead, pop 16 M, 5 fpm
Congo, 27 dead, pop 5 M, 5 fpm
Cote d’Ivoire, 49 dead, pop 26 M, 2 fpm
Djibouti, 45 dead, pop 1 M, 45 fpm
Equatorial Guinea, 32 dead, pop 1.4 M, 23 fpm
Eritrea, 0 dead, pop 3 M, 0 fpm
Eswatini (was Swaziland), 4 dead, pop 1 M, 4 fpm
Ethiopia, 72 dead, pop 112 M ,<1 fpm
Gabon, 34 dead, pop 2 M, 17 fpm
Gambia, 1 dead, pop 2 M, <1 fpm
Ghana, 70 dead, pop 30 M, 2 fpm
Guinea, 27 dead, pop 13 M, 2 fpm
Guinea Bissau, 15 dead, pop 2 M, 8 fpm
Lesotho, 0 dead, pop 2 M, 0 fpm
Liberia, 33 dead, pop 5 M, 7 fpm
Libya, 10 dead, pop 7 M, 1 fpm
Madagascar, 13 dead, pop 30 M, <1 fpm
Malawi, 8 dead, pop 19 M, <1 fpm
Mauretania, 95 dead, pop 5 M, 19 fpm
Mozambique, 4 dead, pop 30 M, <1 fpm
Namibia, 0 dead, pop 2 M, 0 fpm
Niger, 67 dead, pop 23 M, 3 fpm
Rwanda, 2 dead, pop 13 M, <1 fpm
Senegal, 79 dead, pop 16 M, 5 fpm
Sierra Leone, 53 dead, pop 8 M, 7 fpm
Somalia, 88 dead, pop 15 M, 6 fpm
South Sudan, 31 dead, pop 15 M, 2 fpm
Togo, 13 dead, pop 8 M, 2 fpm
Tunisia, 50 dead, 12 M, 4 fpm
Uganda, 0 dead, 44 M, 0 fpm
Tanzania, 21 dead, 58 M, <1 fpm
Western Sahara, 1 dead, pop 0.6 M, 2 fpm
Zambia, 11 dead, pop 17 M, <1 fpm
Zimbabwe, 4 dead, pop 15 M, <1 fpm
In the Americas:
Costa Rica, 12 dead, pop 5 M, 2fpm
Cuba, 85 dead, pop 11 M, 7 fpm
El Salvador, 93 dead, pop 0.6 M, 155 fpm
Guyana, 12 dead, pop 0.8 M, 15 fpm
Haiti, 87 dead, pop 11 M, 7 fpm
Jamaica, 10 dead, pop 3M, 3 fpm
Nicaragua, 64 dead, pop 7 M, 9 fpm
Paraguay, 13 dead, pop 7 M, 2 fpm
Suriname, 8 dead, pop 0.6 M, 13 fpm
Trinidad & Tobago, 8 dead, pop 1 M, 8 fpm
Uruguay, 24 dead, pop 3 M, 8 fpm
Venezuela, 30 dead, pop 29 M, 1 fpm
In Asia:
Bahrain, 57 dead, pop 2 M, 28 fpm
Bhutan, 0 dead, pop 0.8 M, 0 fpm
Cambodia, 0 dead, pop 16 M, 0 fpm
Jordan, 9 dead, pop 10 M, 1 fpm
Kyrgyzstan, 35 dead, pop 6 M, 6 fpm
Laos, 0 dead, pop 7 M, 0 fpm
Lebanon, 32 dead, pop 7 M, 5 fpm
Maldives, 8 dead, pop 0.5 M, 16 fpm
Mongolia, 0 dead, pop 3 M, 0 fpm
Myanmar, 6 dead, pop 54 M, <1 fpm
Nepal, 22 dead, pop 29 M, <1 fpm
Palestine, 5 dead, pop 5 M, 1 fpm
Qatar, 93 dead, pop 3 M, 31 fpm
Singapore, 26 dead, pop 6 M, 5 fpm
Sri Lanka, 11 dead, pop 21 M, <1 fpm
Syria, 7 dead, pop 17 M, <1 fpm
Taiwan, 7 dead, pop 24 M, <1 fpm
Tajikistan, 51 dead, pop 9 M, 6 fpm
Thailand, 58 dead, pop 70 M, <1 fpm
Uzbekistan, 19 dead, pop 33 M, <1 fpm
Vietnam, 0 dead, pop 96 M, 0 FPM
In Europe:
Albania, 42 dead, pop 3 M, 14 fpm
Cyprus, 19 dead, pop 0.9 M, 21 fpm
Estonia, 69 dead, pop 1.3 M, 53 fpm
Georgia, 14 dead, pop 4 M, 4.5 fpm
Kosovo, 33 dead, pop 2 M, 17 fpm
Latvia, 30 dead, pop 2 M, 15 fpm
Lithuania, 76 dead, pop 3 M, 25 fpm
Malta, 9 dead, pop 0.5 M, 18 fpm
Montenegro, 9 dead, pop 0.6 M, 15 fpm
Slovakia, 28 dead, pop 5 M, 6 fpm
Elsewhere:
New Zealand, 22 dead, pop 5 M, 4 fpm
Papua New Guinea, 0 dead, pop 9 M, 0 fpm
Once again, I would very much like the secret of what those countries (apparently) did right, and what the US, Brazil, Mexico, France, Spain, Italy, Belgium and a lot of other countries obviously did wrong.
Ideas?
Nice work, Guy. Thanks for expressing fatalities as a rate!!
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The BBC did a detailed piece on what Vietnam did to end up with zero deaths.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52628283
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